[Case Study] How I & My Students Made Over 42.66% Return on Texas Roadhouse’s Stock

What you will learn in this post:

  • A detailed case study on how to apply our value investing strategy to find highly profitable stocks.
  • How I and my students easily made over 42.66% return on Texas Roadhouse's stock.
  • How to perform both fundamental analysis and technical analysis the right way!
  • A step-by-step valuation of Texas Roadhouse and how you can automate your valuation process.
  • And a lot more...

I know it’s hard for you to start investing as you have no idea about where and how to start.

And it can be even harder for you to invest your money if you don’t have a SYSTEM…

You may have already read dozens of investing books and taken many investing classes, but if you don’t know how to apply the knowledge, you are wasting your time.

That’s why I want to make something that’s extremely practical for you.

In this case study, I’ll teach you exactly how we value a company from beginning to the end...step by step!

More...

I’m going to use Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) as an example because it’s a great value stock that we’ve invested in last year.

If you’ve taken our Advanced Value Investing course, you may have already known this company as I talked a lot about it.

I bought this stock at around $36, and sent out an announcement to our students when its price increased to about $37.

TXRH return

Its value went up quickly to over $42, and we made an easy return of 14% in only a few weeks.

Until now, the stock price has increased to about $51.36 a share - that’s an amazing return of 42.66% in just one year.

As you can see, with the right investment strategy, you can easily increase your wealth and multiply your money.

Now let’s dive into the case study. Don’t forget to take notes and click Share to support us.

Company Profile: Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH)

Before doing the financial analysis and valuation of a company, you’ll need to spend some time taking a look at its latest financial highlights and other fundamental factors.

This step is really important as it helps you understand better the current financial performance of the business you’re investing in.

1. Business Snapshot

Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) is a leading business operating within the casual dining segment of the restaurant industry. The first restaurant was opened in 1993 in Clarksville, Indiana by the current CEO W. Kent Taylor.

Since then, this company has been dominating the restaurant industry with over 500 restaurants around the US and several overseas markets.

Their operating strategy is aimed at positioning each of their restaurants as the local hometown favorite for a wide segment of customers who are looking for fairly priced, full-service and high-quality meals.

Texas Roadhouse restaurant

Source: Nation's Restaurant News (NRN) - www.nrn.com

To achieve tremendous success in not only the US market but also many oversea markets, Texas Roadhouse has been concentrating on the following components:

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    Providing their consumers with superior, freshly prepared food
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    Offering their managers performance-based compensation
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    Focusing on serving dinners
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    Offering their customers excellent services with affordable prices

As their slogan stated “Legendary Food, Legendary Service”, I love that Texas Roadhouse is a quality-oriented company as they pay much attention to the quality of their food, employees and customer satisfaction.

2. Financial Highlights

Texas Roadhouse’s total sales revenue increased by over 12.0% in Q3 2017 compared to their revenue in Q3 2016.

The growth in revenue was contributed by the opening of new casual dining restaurants with a rise in average unit volume (AUV), which was primarily driven by the company’s comparable restaurant sales growth.

Comparable restaurant sales and store weeks went up by 4.5% and 8.1%, respectively, at company restaurants in Q3 2017.

Financial Highlights

The business restaurant margin also increased about 10% during the period, while the restaurant margin as a percentage of restaurant sales slightly dropped to 17.8% from 18.1% in Q3 2016.

This decline was primarily caused by the increase in labor costs and a change in the company’s compensation structure.

However, the increase in labor costs were moderately offset by commodity deflation of nearly 2.0% led by lower food costs, especially beef.

Texas Roadhouse’s net income also went up by about 20.0% during this period thanks to a rise in restaurant margin dollars, moderately offset by an increase in general & administrative expenses and depreciation costs.

Diluted earnings per share (EPS) also raised by over 22.0% to $0.44 compared to $0.36 in the prior period.

3. Long-term Growth Strategies

Their core marketing strategies are designed not only to promote their brands, but also maintain a localized focus. They aim at increasing comparable restaurant sales by:

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    Attracting new customers to come
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    Increasing the frequency of visits by their current customers
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    Promoting and communicating their brands’ food & service quality
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    Focusing on providing value to their customers

Texas Roadhouse strives for achieving these objectives through 3 main initiatives: local restaurant area marketing, in-restaurant marketing and advertising.

Growth Strategies

The business long-term strategies aim at increasing their net income and EPS and on top of that creating value for their shareholders. These objectives are accomplished by the following strategies:

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    Expanding their restaurant base
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    Enhancing their company’s profitability
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    Leveraging their scalable infrastructure
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    Returning capital to their shareholders

The company’s management will keep assessing opportunities to develop Texas Roadhouse and Bubba’s 33 restaurants not only in existing markets and both also in both new international and domestic markets.

The company remains focused on managing restaurant investment costs and driving sales so as to retain their restaurant development in the future.

Texas Roadhouse is also looking to increase their profit margin by managing operating expenses and increasing restaurant sales.

Profit Report

To support the growth, the management will continue to make significant investments in their business infrastructure, including accounting systems, real estate, human resources, development of new restaurant concepts, legal, and marketing.

The company continues to pay dividends and assess opportunities to create more shareholders’ value through buybacks of common stock.

The company long-term strategy also includes increasing their regular quarterly dividend amount over time.

4. Business Risk Assessment

When evaluating a company, it’s important that you look into all potential risks that company may take. You can easily get this information by reading the company’s latest annual report and looking for the Risk Factors section.

Texas Roadhouse restaurant 2

Source: Texas Roadhouse Inc. - www.texasroadhouse.com

This is essential because if any of the uncertainties and risks actually happens, the business, especially its stock price, could be significantly affected.

Below is a list of potential risks associated with this company and the restaurant industry in general.

Risks Associated With The Company

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    If the company fails to manage their growth efficiently, it could negatively impact their business.
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    The company’s growth strategy, which mainly depends on their capacity to open and run new restaurants profitably, is subject to a number of factors, some of which may be beyond their control.
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    You shouldn’t rely on historical changes in the company’s Average Unit Volume (AUV) or their comparable restaurant sales growth as a way to determine their future operating results because they may fluctuate considerably.
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    The development and execution of new restaurant concepts may not contribute to the company’s long-term growth.
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    The company’s expansion into overseas markets may come up with increased political, regulatory, economic, and other unanticipated risks.
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    Acquisition of existing restaurants from the company’s franchisees and other strategic transactions may have unexpected repercussions that could adversely affect their business and financial performance.
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    Nearly 14% of their company-owned restaurants are based in Texas and, therefore, Texas Roadhouse is quite sensitive to changes in economic and other developments and trends in that state.
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     Changes in discretionary spending and consumer preferences could harm their business.
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    The company’s quarterly results of operations may fluctuate and could not meet the expectations of investors and investment analysts due to many factors, some of which may be beyond the management’s control, leading to a drop in their stock price.

Risks Associated With The Restaurant Industry

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    Changes in supply and food costs could harm the company’s operating performance.
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    The company could be negatively affected by labor shortages or an increase in labor costs.
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    The business goal to increase sales and profits at their existing restaurants could be negatively impacted by many macroeconomic factors.
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    The company’s success relies on their capacity to compete with other food service companies.
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    The food service industry, especially in casual dining segment, is impacted significantly by publicity and litigation regarding health and food quality, which could cause consumers to avoid the company’s restaurants and lead to considerable litigation costs and liabilities.
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    Health concerns in terms of the consumption of food products could impact consumer preferences and could negatively affect the company’s operating results.
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    Food-borne illness and food safety concerns may harm the company by increasing costs and declining demand.
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    The circumstances of future misstatement remains because of inherent limitations in the company’s control systems, which could have a negative impact on their business.
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    Texas Roadhouse rely primarily on information technology, and any interruption, weakness, or material failure, could prevent the company from efficiently operating their business.
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    The company outsources particular business processes to third-party companies that may bring the business additional risks, such as increased costs and disruptions in business.
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    The company may incur adverse revenue consequences and increased costs resulting from the fraudulent credit card uses, or breaches of customer and employee confidential information.
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    The company may not be capable of attaining and maintaining permits and licenses necessary to operate their restaurants, and compliance with governmental laws and regulations could harm their operating performance.
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    The business failure or incapability to protect their trademarks or enforce other proprietary rights could negatively affect the value of their brand as well as their competitive position.
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    The company is subject to upgrading legal complexity and could be party to litigation that could harm their business.
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    Their current insurance may not offer enough levels of coverage against claims.
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    Declined operating cash flow (OCF), or an incapability to raise funds could adversely impact their business initiatives. That may also make it hard for the company to execute their expense, revenue, and capital allocation tactics.
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    The company’s existing credit facility may limit their capability to incur additional debt.
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    Additional impairment charges may be compulsorily recorded by the company in the future.
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    If Texas Roadhouse loses the services of any of their major management personnel, the business could suffer.
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    The company’s franchisees could take actions that could have an adverse impact on the business.

Other Potential Risks

Besides the mentioned risks, the company may be subject to other types of risks, including:

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    Provisions in Delaware law and the company’s charter documents may cause a delay or prevent their acquisition by a third party.
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    There can be no guarantee that the company will be able to pay dividends on their common stock in the future.

As you can see that through massive research, you can understand a lot about this company as well as the industry it’s operating in.

Keep in mind that risks that the company is taking are also the risks you will be taking when investing in its stock.

So make sure you won’t skip this step when performing your investment analysis.

5. Industry Overview

After considering risks associated with this company, it’s worth having a look at the restaurant industry as a whole.

Think about it this way…

When doing business, the first thing you need to do is to do a market research so you can understand the fluctuation of market trends as well as its competition.

This is the same for stock investing as you want to know how the market trends affect a company’s stock and how competitive the industry is.

Industry Overview

This information will tell you if the company you’re investing in is capable of gaining market shares and competing with other industry peers.

For example, if the industry is highly competitive while the company can consistently generate high profit margins, it’s a sure sign that it has strong competitive advantages over its competitors and there’s a high chance that it can survive market downturns in the future.

At First Glance: Restaurant Industry

In terms of definition, restaurant businesses are retailers of prepared foods, and their results of operations are normally affected by a number of the same factors which also influence traditional retail companies.

Business models of restaurant companies are simple and easy to understand. However, because this industry is large and segmented, you’ll need to consider many factors when making your investment decisions.

Restaurant Industry Trends

Source: Top Restaurant Trends - www.creditdonkey.com

You should also keep in mind that the restaurant industry is intensely competitive due to consumers having a lot of dining options. Industry peers include everything from pizzerias and delis to fine-dining caters.

In addition, while there are some leading players in this large industry, especially among fast-food retailers, no single business has cornered the market.

Since different consumers prefer different dining options, restaurant meals are discretionary purchases and therefore the industry as a whole tends to be strikingly cyclical in nature.

Sales & Profit Margins

After learning about the industry’s competition, the next thing you’ll need to consider is how companies in this industry generate profits and improve their profit margins.

There are two ways that a restaurant company can increase their revenue:

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    By running promotions to boost sales
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    By opening new restaurants in new locations

Opening new restaurants is a primary way to drive revenue, especially when the company is in its early development stage. But it may become more and more difficult to generate profits when a restaurant chain grows in size.

Comparable-store sales, also known as “comps”, is a widely used metric to consider when evaluating restaurant companies. You’ll see this metric is mentioned a lot when reading the company’s annual report.

Comps will become more important when the business reaches its maturity, since they will be the main driver of growth.

Menu-price increases and product innovations are two essential ways to improve the company’s same-store sales.

Remodeling existing restaurants and frequently running promotions and limited-time offers are other ways to attract new guests and boost revenue.

When evaluating restaurant companies, you should take the dollar value of the average guest check into account, as this can tell you exactly what is bringing sales.

In this industry, management’s ability to offer a menu that appeals to a wide range of diners is an important factor to determine a restaurant’s profit margins.

Most restaurant businesses have operating profit margins (OPM) in the mid- to upper teens, and net profit margins (NPM) in the mid- to high-single digits.

Besides considering a restaurant’s revenue and net profits, you should also pay attention to other factors, such as food and labor costs, because they are major costs for service-oriented restaurants.

What I Learned About This Company At First Glance

The number one rule of value investing is that you should not put your money into something that you don’t understand. After doing intensive research, you should be able to describe the business in your own words.

In other words, if you still find it hard to explain how the business makes money and you still have no idea about the industry that business is operating in, then you should not make an investment.

Okay, now let’s summarize what we’ve found so far. Below is everything I’ve learned about Texas Roadhouse and its industry.

Describe The Business In My Own Words

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    Texas Roadhouse is a restaurant company operating in the casual dining segment.
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    The restaurant industry is cyclical and highly competitive since customers have many dining options.
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    Making an investment in restaurant stocks is compelling as their business models are straightforward and easy to understand.
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    The company focuses on value creation and cares not only for their customers and employees, but also for their shareholders.
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    The company’s sales revenue and net income increased compared to the prior period.
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    However, the business operating performance was slightly affected by the increase in labor costs and changes in its compensation structure.
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    The diluted EPS also increased significantly compared to the previous period.
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    This company has many long-term growth strategies, which could help generate more profits and enhance shareholders’ value.
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    The company has been paying dividends and has strategic plans to increase their quarterly dividend amount regularly.
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    There are many potential risks that could harm the company’s results of operations. As an investor, I should be aware of all of these threats.

Now that we have a better understanding about this company, let’s dive into the next section where we’ll dive deeper into its financial performance.

5 Compelling Reasons Why I Picked This Value Stock

As a rookie investor, I know you’ve had many troubles understanding how the stock market actually works.

It’s even harder when you have no idea about what you should do first when evaluating a company.

There are many reasons why I felt like investing in Texas Roadhouse. However, I’ll only go into the top 5.

This is because I don’t want to make this case study more complicated, and I want you to take away the most important parts, which will be useful for your investment journey.

Less is more - that’s right!

So now let’s find out the top 5 reasons why $TXRH has been a worthwhile investment.

1. It’s Had a Stable Operating Performance

After looking into Texas Roadhouse’s financial statements, I found that this company has a strong operating performance.

Business Report

Net Income

In the previous section, we’ve learned that this year the company’s net income has raised by nearly 20.0% compared to the prior period.

But that’s not what actually matters...

The thing we need to pay attention to is the net income trend.

As you can see from the chart below, Texas Roadhouse’s net income has been increasing consistently over the past 5 years.

TXRH net income chart

I realized that in the period from 2012 to 2016, the company’s net income increased by 63.0% from $71 million to $116 million. 

Year

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

TTM

Net Income (in millions)

71

80

87

97

116

124

% Change

100%

113%

123%

137%

163%

175%

In other words, the company had achieved an annualized net income growth rate of about 13.0%.

Sales Revenue

In my investing courses, I’ve been talking a lot about the relationship between a company’s sales revenue and its net income.

A simple rule is that if you find that there was an increase in net income, the revenue should increase as well.

Taking a look at the chart below, you’ll see a consistent revenue growth trend over the past 5 years.

TXRH sales revenue chart

From 2012 to 2016, the revenue increased by 58.0% to nearly $2 billion - that’s an annualized revenue growth rate of 11.6%.

Year

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

TTM

Sales Revenue (in millions)

1,263

1,423

1,582

1,807

1,991

2,159

% Change

100%

113%

125%

143%

158%

171%

The growth in both net income and revenue tells us that the company’s management has been doing a great job in boosting their company’s sales and generating more profits.

Cash Flow From Operations (OCF)

Most investors fall into a value trap because they only care about how much a company makes, and they tend to ignore the importance of assessing cash flows.

If you want to draw a clear picture of a company’s operating performance, evaluating the net income and revenue is not enough. You’ll need to pay attention to its operating cash flow as well.

Looking into Texas Roadhouse’s cash flow statement, I found that its net cash from operating activities has been consistently on the rise over the last 5 years.

TXRH cash flow chart

In the period from 2012 to 2016, the cash flow from operations increased by over 76.0% from $146 million to $257 million.

Year

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

TTM

Cash Flow (in millions)

71

80

87

97

116

124

% Change

100%

119%

132%

156%

176%

195%

It’s interesting that the company’s OCF has grown even faster than the revenue and net income at an annualized growth rate of over 15.0%.

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Now let’s look at the earnings per share. You can easily find this figure reported on the company’s income statement.

As you can see that Texas Roadhouse’s EPS has been consistently increasing over the past 5 years.

TXRH EPS chart

This shows that if you invest in this company, you will be able to make more and more profits for every share you own every year.

Year

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

TTM

EPS

1.02

1.15

1.25

1.38

1.64

1.74

% Change

100%

113%

123%

137%

163%

175%

Now let’s compare the company’s quarterly EPS:

EPS reported on September 2016

EPS reported on September 2017

$0.36 per share

$0.44 per share

Percentage Change in EPS: 22.2%

The company’s EPS increased by over 22.0% in Q3 2017 compared to their EPS in Q3 2016.

The result is amazing as it tells us that Texas Roadhouse is very efficient in using its capital to generate more income.

Return on Equity (ROE)

The next thing that I’m going to talk about is the company’s return on common shareholders’ equity ratio.

As a value investor, evaluating the ROE figure is very important as this tells you how effectively a business is using your capital to generate profits.

Year

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

TTM

Return on Equity (ROE)

14.00%

14.45%

14.56%

15.17%

16.28%

15.91%

Source: Morningstar.com

In addition, by looking at the ROE, you can easily determine how efficient the company’s management is at utilizing your money to maintain their current operations as well as fund their future expansion.

As you can see from the table above, the ROE has remained consistently high (over 14%) in the last 5 years. This indicates that Texas Roadhouse is a very profitable company.

2. It’s been a Low-debt Company

One of the top reasons why I invested in Texas Roadhouse’s stock is because it’s a low debt company.

In fact, having debt is not a bad thing as it helps the business fund their growth and expansion easier.

But having too much debt can lead to many financial issues, especially when the interest partially or fully eats up the company’s cash flow and profits.

Looking into Texas Roadhouse’s balance sheet, I found that the company’s current cash balance was even higher than its long-term debt.

TXRH Balance Sheet

Source: Morningstar.com

This is a very good sign as it shows you that the company could easily pay off its long-term liabilities by only using cash, and it wouldn’t have to sell any assets to pay off the debt.

How about its short-term debt repayment capacity? Now let’s take a quick look at the company’s current ratio.

Year

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

TTM

Current Ratio

0.77

0.83

0.68

0.52

0.72

0.69

Source: Morningstar.com

As you can see that the current ratio has remained lower than 1.0, this indicates that the company might have troubles paying off its short-term debts by using its current assets.

3. This Stock Was Undervalued

After looking into a company’s financial performance, the next thing you want to do is to make sure it’s undervalued.

In other words, you want to invest in a company that is currently selling well below its intrinsic value.

The process of calculating intrinsic value is quite complicated, but it won’t be a problem when you get familiar with the whole process.

6 Steps to Calculate Intrinsic Value

There are 6 steps you’ll need to follow:

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    Find all financial data
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    Calculate the company’s weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
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    Perform a discounted free cash flow (DFCF) analysis
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    Calculate the company’s net present value (NPV)
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    Calculate the company’s terminal value (TV)
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    Calculate the company’s intrinsic value by putting the NPV and TV together

If you still have no idea about how to calculate intrinsic value, you can follow my step-by-step guide here.

Below are financial data of Texas Roadhouse as of the time I bought this stock:

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    Share Price = $36.45
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    Market Cap = $2.56 billion
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    Number of Shares Outstanding = 70.14 million 
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    Free Cash Flow = $45 million
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    Short-term Debt = $20 million
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    Long-term Debt = $51 million
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    Market Value of Debt = $85.2 million
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    Total Liabilities = $334 million
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    Total Cash & Cash Equivalents = $73 million
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    Stock Beta = 0.57
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    Long-term Growth Rate = 12.00%
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    Perpetuity Growth Rate = 2.13%
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    Market Risk Premium = 5.61%
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    Risk Free Rate = 1.746%
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    Interest Rate = 3.96%
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    Income Tax Rate = 29.71%

Now let’s calculate this company’s intrinsic value together.

Calculate Discount Rate (WAAC)

To find the company's discount rate, you can follow the 5 simple steps below:

Step 1: Calculate Cost of Debt (Rd)

TXRH cost of debt

Step 2: Calculate Weight of Debt (Wd)

TXRH weight of debt

Step 3: Calculate Cost of Equity (Re)

TXRH cost of equity

Step 4: Calculate Weight of Equity (We)

TXRH weight of equity

Step 5: Calculate Discount Rate (WACC)

TXRH discount rate

Calculate Discounted Free Cash Flow (DFCF)

TXRH discounted free cash flow

Calculate Net Present Value (NPV)

TXRH net present value

Calculate Terminal Value (TV)

TXRH terminal value

Calculate Intrinsic Value (IV)

TXRH intrinsic value

I bought this stock at about $36 in early 2016. At this time, its intrinsic value was about $51.

As you can see that the intrinsic value per share was much higher than the share price. So I’d come to a conclusion that the stock was undervalued.

If you find it hard to calculate intrinsic value yourself, I’m super excited to let you know that all of your headaches will be gone…FOREVER!

That’s because I and my team have developed an Intrinsic Value Calculator for you. This tool will help you save time and energy by automating your entire stock valuation process.

TXRH intrinsic value calculator

All you need to do is key in several numbers into the calculator, and then you’ll instantly get an intrinsic value of $51.81.

4. The Stock Achieved a Value Score of 71/120

After performing fundamental analysis of Texas Roadhouse, I used the Value Investing Scorecard to double check to see if this company was actually worth investing in.

TXRH value score

As you can see that $TXRH achieved a value score of 71/120, which is considered a fair investment.

FYI, the Value Investing Scorecard was developed by our team to help you not only make easier investment decisions, but also automate your fundamental analysis process.

This tool helps you score stocks based on their current financial performance by using our proven investment criteria.

We use a new valuation metric called “Value Score” to determine if a stock is fundamentally strong.

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    Stocks that rank as a “A” or achieve a value score of 90+ are the most investment-worthy ones.
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    Stocks that rank as a “B” or higher are considered fair investments.
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    Stocks with a value score of under 70 (rank C or below) are riskier and may not be worth your attention.

You see, with this metric, you can easily know whether or not a company is a great value stock.

5. It Was in an Uptrend

Most value investors make the same mistake that they often make their investment decision based solely on fundamental analysis.

The fact is that using fundamental analysis alone is not enough...

Fundamental analysis focuses on covering topics like the company’s management, the industry they operate, the products or service they sell.

This technique also focuses on examining the company’s financial statements to help you understand better their current financial performance.

However, the problem is that most of your fundamental research is based on “projections” and a large portion of financial data is provided by the company’s management.

And the thing is financial data can be misleading (intentionally or not).

In other words, there are many techniques a company can use to cook their book and make their financial statements look “beautiful” in your eyes.

Perform Technical Analysis

In addition, a great stock can become a bad investment if you buy it at the wrong time.

That’s why before making my investment decision in this company, I’d want to confirm that it was currently in an uptrend.

I used the simple moving average crossover strategy to analyze the current trend of this stock.

If the SMA 60 line crossed above the SMA 180 line, and both lines slope upward, there would be potentially an incoming uptrend and this stock was going to make me some good money

And guess what...I was right!

After I bought this stock, its value quickly jumped from about $36 to over $42 a share in just a few weeks.

If you had joined our investing training courses and bought this stock at around $37, you could’ve made over 14% return in less than a month.

TXRH return

Until now, the stock price has increased to over $50 a share - that’s an amazing return of over 40% in just one year.

The Bottom Line

There you have it - an “uncensored” guide on how to apply our value investing strategy to find profitable stocks.

I hope this case study will help you become a better investor.

You can also join our investing training programs if you want to keep yourself updated with new investment tactics that I and my students are using to build and multiply our wealth.

If you have any questions for me, feel free to leave a comment below or simply shoot me an email.

And don’t forget to click Share to support us.

Have a great day!

Hung Nguyen
 

Entrepreneur, independent investor, instructor and a visionary of my team here. I’ve been playing with stocks and sharing my knowledge to the world. The stock market is cool, and I love it!

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